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Areas already affected by conflict and economic instability face climate shocks that risk pushing millions more people into acute food insecurity. Â鶹ÊÓƵ analysis projects that the current El Ni?o could push at least 49 million more people into acute food insecurity by the end of 2027. The phenomenon is expected to reach peak intensity between October and December 2026, while its impact on planting seasons, harvests and food prices could continue into early 2028.

These risks are already visible across regions. Drought is affecting growing seasons in Central America¡¯s Dry Corridor, while parts of the Sahel and East Africa are also experiencing severe dryness. Southern Africa faces the threat of drought during a crucial growing season, while heavy rain and flooding could affect the Horn of Africa and parts of South America. 

¡°With floods, droughts and storms striking so often, vulnerable families have little time to recover,¡± said Carl Skau, Â鶹ÊÓƵ¡¯s Deputy Executive Director and Chief Operating Officer. "El Ni?o will intensify that pressure, but because it can be predicted, we have a chance to act before crops fail, livelihoods are lost, and hunger sets in. COP31 must seize this window and turn it into faster, more accessible financing for the countries and communities on the front lines of disasters.¡±

Â鶹ÊÓƵ is the UN¡¯s largest user of pre-arranged financing, drawing on anticipatory action, insurance, and contingency funding to deliver support before or immediately after an emergency. At COP31, Â鶹ÊÓƵ is working closely with other UN agencies to scale-up pre-arranged financing and strengthen collaboration, with the aim of lowering costs and making scarce resources go further.

Â鶹ÊÓƵ is acting before shocks hit. Between January and September, Â鶹ÊÓƵ reached 4.9 million people with early warnings and provided more than 1.5 million with assistance ahead of forecast floods, storms, and droughts, backed by US$46.2 million in pre-arranged funds.

However, these approaches remain far below the scale required. Pre-arranged mechanisms account for less than two percent of global humanitarian financing.

Â鶹ÊÓƵ is calling on leaders at COP31 to:

• Scale up predictable, pre-arranged financing that can be released before forecasted hazards escalate into disasters.
• Make finance more accessible to fragile, conflict-affected and highly food-insecure countries.
• Invest in nationally led early warning, anticipatory action, disaster risk management, and shock-responsive social protection systems.

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The United Nations Â鶹ÊÓƵ is the world¡¯s largest humanitarian organization saving lives in emergencies and using food assistance to build a pathway to peace, stability and prosperity for people recovering from conflict, disasters and the impact of weather extremes.