Â鶹ÊÓƵ

El Ni?o is one of the most powerful drivers of global weather, climate conditions and hunger. El Ni?o conditions have started and are expected to strengthen through 2026 and continue into 2027, potentially becoming one of the strongest on record and raising concerns for food security in vulnerable regions. Â鶹ÊÓƵ and our partners are taking early action now, helping people prepare for floods, droughts and storms before they hit, which also helps reduce humanitarian needs.

What is El Ni?o and how can it become a food security crisis?

El Ni?o is the warm phase of the , a natural climate pattern that shifts global weather patterns and increases the risks of floods, droughts, storms, fires, and heat waves occur worldwide.

El Ni?o can bring drought to some regions and severe flooding to others ¨C and in some cases both. These extremes damage crops, livestock and infrastructure, reducing food production and disrupting markets. As supply falls, prices rise and food becomes less affordable ¨C especially for smallholder farmers and pastoralists who rely on rainfall. When combined with existing pressures such as conflict these climate shocks can quickly increase hunger.

El Ni?o can also affect major global food-producing regions, with impacts on supply and prices that extend beyond affected areas ¨C multiplying food security risks.

What is the difference between El Ni?o and La Ni?a?

El Ni?o and La Ni?a are opposite phases of the same ENSO cycle.

• El Ni?o is the warm phase, when ocean temperatures rise and disrupt rainfall patterns, often bringing drought in some regions and heavier rains in others
• La Ni?a is the cool phase, when ocean temperatures fall and shift weather patterns in different ¨C but still often extreme ¨C ways, often bringing flooding in some regions and drought elsewhere

They do not happen at different times of the year. Instead, they alternate within the same cycle and typically develop during the year, peak towards the end of the year, and influence weather patterns for several months.

Both phases can affect agriculture, water availability and food security ¨C and both have been linked to past food crises.

Why is this year¡¯s El Ni?o especially alarming?

Expert forecasts show the current and already strong El Ni?o is steadily intensifying ¨C potentially becoming among the ¨C and expected to peak between September-December 2026. In many areas, its effects will likely be felt well into 2027 and beyond, due to its impact on future harvest cycles.  

New Â鶹ÊÓƵ analysis shows El Ni?o is set to sharply increase hunger in some of the world¡¯s most vulnerable countries, with 274 million people in 45 countries forecast to be acutely food insecure by the end 2027 ¨C 49 million more than today.

These forecasts ¨C along with lessons learnt from previous El Ninos  ¨C are critical because they allow governments and humanitarian organizations like Â鶹ÊÓƵ to act early ¨C before drought, floods or failed harvests begin to affect food production and incomes.

This latest El Ni?o is also unfolding at a time when food systems are already under strain. High energy and fertilizer prices ¨C linked in part to wider geopolitical pressures ¨C are already affecting planting decisions, agricultural production and food prices. Together, these factors increase the risk that climate shocks could push more people into hunger.

Where is El Ni?o likely to hit food security the hardest?

Â鶹ÊÓƵ analysis shows countries already grappling with poverty, economic instability and repeated weather extremes will likely be hardest hit by El Ni?o ¨C but its impact won¡¯t be felt uniformly. Some countries are already feeling the fallout ¨C such as below-average rainfall, flooding or unusually high temperatures ¡ª while others are expected to feel the effects later on. Many at-risk communities rely on rain-fed agriculture and have limited capacity to absorb shocks ¨C meaning even small disruptions can quickly affect food availability and access.

• Latin America and the Caribbean are expected to see drier-than-average conditions, and potentially some of the most dramatic hikes in food insecurity, potentially surging nearly 50 percent regionally and affecting more than 16 million people.  
• East and southern Africa could also see deteriorating food insecurity for more than 18 million people, up by more than one-quarter, and with southern Africa particularly vulnerable. 
• Asia and the Pacific similarly risk a strong El Ni?o backlash, potentially pushing an additional 8.2 million people into acute hunger. 
• West and Central Africa, with a mixed forecast of both drought and wetter-than-normal conditions depending on affected countries, is projected to see food insecurity impact nearly 6 million more people, a 12 percent increase. 
• Middle East and North Africa could see El Ni?o intensify pressure on food systems already strained by conflict and economic pressures, with more than 33 million people already facing hunger. 

What does Â鶹ÊÓƵ do before El Ni?o turns into a hunger emergency?

Â鶹ÊÓƵ focuses on an approach known as Anticipatory Action, taking steps before a crisis unfolds. We use climate forecasts and early-warning systems, providing cash assistance, food support and early-warning messages to communities. Other measures include strengthening water systems, including irrigation and flood protection, and disaster risk financing including savings, loans and insurance.

Since May 2026, Â鶹ÊÓƵ has activated anticipatory action plans in Chad, El Salvador, Guatemala, Mauritania, South Sudan and Uganda, providing more than US$14 million in early support and helping around 500,000 people prepare for forecast El Ni?o-related shocks. This includes Â鶹ÊÓƵ scaling pre-arranged financing mechanisms such as disaster risk insurance, credit and digital payments, to make more money available at lower cost.  

Anticipatory actions save lives, time and money. Acting early also helps avoid inflation, food shortages and post disaster debt. Pre-crisis prices are lower than crisis prices, for example procuring animal feed before flooding is 15 percent cheaper in Bangladesh than during a flood.

Evidence shows that every US$1 invested can generate up to US$7 in avoided humanitarian losses. In Southern Africa, conservative estimates from the 2023¨C2024 El Ni?o-induced drought indicate that investments in anticipatory actions yielded assisted populations a 30-percent net benefit over traditional response.

How does acting early cost less than responding late?

Because El Ni?o can be forecast in advance, action can be taken before impacts peak. in avoided losses. In simple terms, it costs less to protect livelihoods before a shock than to rebuild them afterwards ¨C and leads to better outcomes for families. Early support also allows people to stay on their feet, rather than falling deeper into crisis.

Early action helps protect crops, livestock and incomes ¨C reducing the need for costly emergency assistance and long recovery periods.

Since May 2026, Â鶹ÊÓƵ has activated anticipatory action plans in Chad, El Salvador, Guatemala, Mauritania, South Sudan and Uganda, providing more than US$14 million in early support and helping around 500,000 people prepare for forecast El Ni?o-related shocks.

Why is Â鶹ÊÓƵ well positioned to handle an emergency such as El Ni?o?

Â鶹ÊÓƵ combines global reach, expertise in early-warning systems and our operational scale to respond to food crises ¨C before and after they hit. We further support governments in strengthening preparedness and response systems.

This is particularly important for El Ni?o, where predictable climate risks mean we can take preemptive measures.

During the 2023¨C2024 El Ni?o, Â鶹ÊÓƵ and partners reached millions of people with early support, including in drought-affected areas of Southern Africa. This helped families protect crops and livestock, maintain food consumption and reduce losses as conditions worsened.